Joel Mwaka

Data Scientist

I build models that turn messy data into decisions worth trusting.

I work across machine learning, statistics, and the messy middle where they meet the real world. This is where I keep my projects, technical notes, and the occasional essay.

01 — Selected work

Projects

All projects

Churn Signals

A gradient-boosted churn model with SHAP-based explanations, served behind a small FastAPI service and monitored for drift.

  • Python
  • XGBoost
  • SHAP
  • FastAPI

Semantic Paper Search

Retrieval-augmented search over a personal library of ML papers — sentence-transformer embeddings, FAISS index, and a re-ranking step.

  • PyTorch
  • FAISS
  • Transformers
  • Next.js

Forecast Kit

A small toolkit for probabilistic time-series forecasting with backtesting, prediction intervals, and clean diagnostic plots.

  • Python
  • statsmodels
  • Polars
02 — Writing

Notes & posts

All notes
/Post

Reading Papers Without Drowning

A three-pass system for keeping up with machine learning research without letting the backlog win.

  • research
  • workflow
  • reading
/Note

The Geometry of Gradient Descent

Why the negative gradient is the direction of steepest descent — and what the learning rate is really controlling.

  • optimization
  • calculus
  • machine-learning